Forecast: Florida Cities to See Home Price Drop

NEW YORK – Mortgage rates are pulling back from their dream-crushing highs of last year, but homeowners in 20 U.S. cities may want to brace for higher home prices, a new study found.

Real estate data and analytics company CoreLogic projects that home prices will increase by 2.5% nationwide through November 2024. For homeowners in some cities, like Redding, California and Fairbanks, Alaska, that number is forecast to be more than double.

Despite soaring mortgage rates, and to the exasperation of many first-time buyers, competition and housing prices stayed stubbornly high, according to CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

“This continued strength remains remarkable amid the nation’s affordability crunch but speaks to the pent-up demand that is driving home prices higher,” Hepp said in the study. “Markets where the prolonged inventory shortage has been exacerbated by the lack of new homes for sale recorded notable price gains over the course of 2023.”

When it comes to the markets that appear primed for a price decline, Florida dominates the top five.

CoreLogic data shows that the following metro areas have the highest likelihood of home price reductions: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL; West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL; and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA.

The company’s forecasts are based on real estate index data that incorporate price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales. See more on the CoreLogic methodology here.

When it comes to the outlook for home buyers, supply remains the biggest obstacle to a cheaper home as mortgage rates come down.

“Only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation,” said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

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