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Fla. has always been a go-to state, but new driver\u2019s license registrations finds a notable increase during the pandemic \u2013 a major reason for rising rental prices.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. \u2013 Extraordinary events have forever pushed and pulled and pressured U.S. population shifts, from gold lust to the citrus rush to the restless return of WWII soldiers to revolutions in foreign lands and civil war on southern soil.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Now there is COVID-19, which has turned a years-long trickle to Florida from the northeast into a deluge. More than 547,000 people exchanged out-of-state driver\u2019s licenses last year for ones with Sunshine State addresses. That\u2019s a 40% increase from 2020 and nearly 20% greater than the five-year average between 2017 and 2021.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The license swaps \u2013 largely from New York (11%), New Jersey (6%) and foreign countries (14%) \u2013 are acutely felt in Florida real estate markets where inventory is anemic and prices aggressive. The median sale price on Palm Beach County single-family homes ended 2021 at nearly half-a-million dollars with the average price pushing seven figures.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Demographers believe the relocations are no tropical dalliance because a driver\u2019s license switch is a sign of determination to make Florida home, even if hurricane season and August\u2019s sweltering humidity are spent in cooler climes away from storms and sticky air.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cUnquestionably the COVID impact was the trigger,\u201d said Related Cos. President Ken Himmel about the influx of people and businesses to Florida and Palm Beach County specifically. \u201cUnquestionably, COVID turned the switch on full blast.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n While the bullseye markets, such as Palm Beach County, may experience the ache of rising rents and home prices until inventory increases, growth experts were reluctant to say the COVID migration on a nationwide scale will make history. Some move to the suburbs was already happening as millennials age. A bump in retirees was also expected, although it was likely expedited by the Great Resignation\/Retirement, the euphemism signaling massive waves of frustrated workers and Baby Boomers exiting the job market. Vanderbilt University Assistant Finance Professor Peter Haslag said COVID-related dispersions are more geographically diverse than past migrations, diluting long-term impacts.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n For Florida, migration is tradition.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cMigration to Florida is an old story,\u201d said University of Washington professor and historian James Gregory in an article for America\u2019s Great Migrations Project that noted the early 1900s citrus and land boom in the state. \u201cMore than any other state, Florida has consistently attracted newcomers.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Of the 61,728 New Yorkers who in 2021 handed over Empire State driver\u2019s licenses for a Florida license, 19,100 or 31% got IDs with Broward, Miami-Dade or Palm Beach County Zip codes. Palm Beach County accounted for 8,107 of the transplants, the largest share of any county in the state.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Outside of the Gold Coast counties of southeast Florida, a weighty exchange of New York licenses last year also occurred in Orange (4,203), Hillsborough (3,746), Lee (2,672), Pinellas (2,335) and Sarasota (2,149) counties.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n For native New Yorker Sandford Burian, 59, the reward for his 90-minute commute into the city from Long Island was the entertainment \u2013 a ball game or show \u2013 a nice dinner and a \u201czillion corporate events\u201d to partake in after work. With COVID restrictions shutting down much of the city and most people working from home, the recompense for the daily slog into Manhattan was gone, he said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Burian and his wife Heidi, 58, recently bought a home in the Avenir community in Palm Beach Gardens and plan to become Florida residents.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cMaybe you were coming home late but there were these big, unique experiences you had every day in the city,\u201d said Burian, who is renting a home in West Palm Beach until the Avenir residence is finished this summer. \u201cNone of that exists now. It makes the tolerance for the commute even harder.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n When Burian\u2019s job as a management and technology consultant went remote, Florida\u2019s better weather and tax benefits beckoned. The pushback from younger employees about returning to offices full time made Burian dubious about what the future holds for New York City.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe saw how much the pandemic devastated New York City and I\u2019m not sure I want to be around for the recovery or for how long that recovery will take,\u201d he said. \u201cUnless the working model literally reverted back to what it was traditionally where everyone had to be in the office every day, I don\u2019t think people are going back.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s no surprise Palm Beach County attracted a heavy influx from the northeast, business leaders said. The Business Development Board of Palm Beach County started courting New York companies in earnest a decade ago \u2013 a pursuit that picked up \u201cgreat momentum\u201d after the pandemic, said BDB President Kelly Smallridge in an email. She ticked off a list of 2020-2021 corporate newcomers that includes financial services provider Virtu Financial, insurance broker NFP, Point72 Asset Management, hedge fund Elliott Management Corp., the Goldman Sachs Group, Millennium Asset Management and asset management firm Benefit Street Partners.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n In early 2021, the Partnership for New York City sent a letter to New York state lawmakers warning that 300,000 city residents of \u201chigher income neighborhoods\u201d had filed for a change of address with the U.S. Postal Service and that Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Maryland were aggressively pursuing New York companies.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe top 5% of earners pay 62% of state personal income taxes,\u201d the letter said. \u201cThese high earners do not want to abandon New York, but at some point, it does not make sense to stay where the business climate is deteriorating and costs are rising.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n After selling a home in Darien, Conn., and moving full time to a second home in the Hamptons, Tom and Cricket Cush decided Florida was where they wanted to settle. While the beaches and sunshine are a main attraction, Tom said he feels the \u201cspirit and attitude\u201d in Florida during COVID has been more optimistic than in New York.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a glass is half full feeling,\u201d said Cush, who is building a home in West Palm Beach. \u201cI will tell you as a born and bred New Yorker, coming down here, it feels liberating.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n He echoed Burian\u2019s lament of the long commute into the New York but said it was something he did for more than two decades because that\u2019s what everyone did and other options were limited.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe pandemic changed that perspective for a lot of people,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n West Palm Beach fit for the couple because they enjoy boating and it has cosmopolitan amenities such as the Norton Museum of Art, tony restaurants and a busy downtown. The things they enjoyed doing, they can still relish \u201cwith the added advantage of the weather,\u201d Cush said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n As popular as Palm Beach County was last year, Miami-Dade County took the top spot for the most license swaps with 48,266. Of those, half were from \u201cforeign countries.\u201d Following Miami-Dade County were Hillsborough (36,626), Orange (35,582), Broward (34,084), and Palm Beach (33,859).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Jeff Lichtenstein, owner and broker of Echo Fine Properties, which helped Burian find a home in Avenir, said competition from transplants means new communities are getting myriad reservations on homes before ground is even broken.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe strategies a buyer has to go through now are just insane,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re figuring out on the front end what the seller wants, what the agent wants when we write offers. We\u2019re pre-booking inspections, filling out all the forms and doing all the things they are going to ask for.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Haslag, the Vanderbilt University professor, released a study in October titled \u201cFrom L.A. to Boise: How Migration has Changed during the COVID-19 Pandemic.\u201d Boise, Idaho\u2019s state capital city, has consistently ranked over the past year as the most overvalued housing market in the nation as remote workers flocked to an area revered for its outdoor activities and considered one of the \u201cbest cities to raise a family.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Haslag said a permanent change in peoples\u2019 lifestyle preferences has occurred and that the shifts in populations are unlikely to reverse in the near future.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t have anyone calling me saying they want to move back to New York,\u201d said Douglas Elliman Realtor Joseph Wagner, who spent most of the pandemic in Florida and is licensed in Florida and New York. \u201cSome people miss it, but most of them just want to have a spare bedroom in New York and live in Florida.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Wagner said that while buyers know they aren\u2019t getting a deal with their Florida real estate purchases, it\u2019s still cheaper than buying and living in New York.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a seller\u2019s market. They don\u2019t care,\u201d he said. \u201cThey just don\u2019t want to pay New York state taxes.\u201d Wagner was reluctant to share names of his New York clients.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n In early January, letters asking \u201cwoke\u201d New Yorkers to leave Florida were put on cars in Palm Beach that had New York license plates. The notices \u2013 written in capital letters \u2013 read: \u201cIf you are one of the those \u2018woke\u2019 people \u2013 leave Florida. You will be happier elsewhere, as will we.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Chris Porter, chief demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, said he\u2019s heard anecdotally on a national level some tension between locals and newcomers, but it\u2019s been focused on the increasing prices, not politics.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Cush said he\u2019s felt no tension. He said he was careful to tell his new neighbors about the plans for the property he bought and said he hopes long-time residents are patient with the changes.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cMaybe they\u2019ll even appreciate it a little that their property values will go up,\u201d Cush said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Foreign countries made up the largest license exchanges in Florida last year with 46,370. That was followed by New York\u2019s 42,224 and New Jersey\u2019s 32,083.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Statewide, California ranked fourth highest in the number of driver\u2019s license exchanges in 2021 with 27,081 \u2013 a notable 43% higher than the 5-year average and 55% higher than 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Illinois, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, Ohio and Virginia rounded out the top 10 of most license swaps. All were higher than the 5-year average.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Nearly 1,900 of the 2021 California changes were made to Palm Beach County addresses. While that\u2019s small compared to the number from the northeast, it\u2019s 51% higher than the 5-year average and 63% higher than 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\nTop 10 heading to Florida<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n