{"id":6365,"date":"2022-03-30T15:07:07","date_gmt":"2022-03-30T20:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/proof-that-prices-wont-fall-the-new-home-market\/"},"modified":"2022-03-30T15:07:07","modified_gmt":"2022-03-30T20:07:07","slug":"proof-that-prices-wont-fall-the-new-home-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/proof-that-prices-wont-fall-the-new-home-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Proof that Prices Won\u2019t Fall? The New-Home Market"},"content":{"rendered":"
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There\u2019s not enough supply (homes) to meet demand, with little relief in sight. The U.S. needs about 3M more homes, and it will take years for builders to catch up.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n BOSTON \u2013 Emerson Claus has been building houses for 45 years. But he has never faced delays like he is now trying to get basic building materials. \u201cI had a client ask me to add a door,\u201d he says at a job site outside Boston. \u201cWe just waited six months to get it.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s a door in a frame,\u201d Claus says, exasperated. \u201cThat\u2019s kind of crazy.\u201d He says appliances can be even worse. \u201cA dishwasher, if you can find the model you want right now, you might wait a year for it.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n By one estimate, the U.S. is more than 3 million homes short of the demand from would-be homebuyers. Pandemic-related supply chain problems aren\u2019t helping. They\u2019re adding tens of thousands of dollars in cost to the typical house. But the roots of the problem go back much further \u2013 to the housing bubble collapse in 2008.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWhat I call a bloodbath happened,\u201d says Claus. It was the worst housing market crash since the Great Depression. Many homebuilders went out of business. Claus was building houses in Florida when the bottom fell out.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cA lot of my tradespeople found other work, went and got retrained for new jobs in law enforcement, all sorts of jobs,\u201d says Claus. \u201cSo the workforce was somewhat decimated.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n A few years later, as Americans started buying more homes again, building stayed below normal. And that slump in building continued for more than a decade. Meanwhile, the largest generation, the millennials, started to settle down and buy houses.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n And that\u2019s the main reason we\u2019ve ended up millions of homes short \u2013 builders for many years just weren\u2019t building enough to keep up with demand. That lack of supply has pushed home prices to record levels \u2013 up nearly 20% last year alone.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Gradually, though, many homebuilding companies recovered. Claus is now the president of the Home Builders and Remodelers Association of Massachusetts. Before COVID hit, he had a crew of nine full-time workers again. That\u2019s not counting the many subcontractor electrician, roofing and plumbing companies he works on homes with.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe always need guys,\u201d says Rene Landeverde, Claus\u2019 foreman. He\u2019s originally from El Salvador, and for the past 10 years he has helped Claus and other local builders find a lot of other workers to hire and train. \u201cI\u2019ve been bringing guys to companies, like maybe 200 guys in my whole construction experience.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n But then the pandemic hit. Things shut down and some of those workers left. Now, with unemployment so low, Landeverde can\u2019t find people to hire like he used to.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a lot harder,\u201d he says. \u201cThey\u2019ve been finding other work.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Claus says that\u2019s made it more difficult for builders to respond to the surge in demand for homes during the pandemic.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIf I had twice as many guys, I would still not have enough,\u201d says Claus, who now has five employees. \u201cAnd my subcontractors, they\u2019re all hurting for people.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n There\u2019s another very big roadblock to home construction.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cLand,\u201d says Claus. \u201cI was just trying to buy a piece of land to build five homes on it. Unfortunately, that land went to somebody else that may put one or two on it.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Claus says he wants to build more attached townhouses, or smaller homes on less land. That\u2019s what many first-time homebuyers can afford to buy. But in many places, zoning rules won\u2019t let you buy land and divide it up \u2013 you can only build one house with a big yard.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Overly restrictive zoning is a big problem nationally, says Robert Dietz, the chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders. \u201cIn certain neighborhoods you simply cannot build townhouses.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cYou have to build single family units on lots that are bigger than the market wants,\u201d Dietz says. \u201cThis is not a free market choice. It\u2019s a government-imposed rule.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n He says that in many parts of the country, the classic NIMBY (not in my back yard) opposition stops higher-density units from being built. Existing homeowners who don\u2019t want more traffic and more homes in their neighborhood keep what he says are outdated, exclusionary zoning rules in place.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n So to make a profit, builders like Claus are left doing renovations or tear downs \u2013 buying an older home, knocking it down, and building a bigger, more expensive new one.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe are seeing a lot of knockdowns,\u201d Claus says. \u201cBut it doesn\u2019t add to the housing stock. You\u2019re replacing something, you\u2019re not adding to it, so the net effect isn\u2019t the best.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Changes in zoning can make a big difference. Some states and towns have been changing the rules to allow in-law rental apartments to be built onto existing houses. These are called accessory dwelling units, or ADUs.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cTwenty percent of remodelers indicate in the last year they\u2019ve undertaken an ADU project, and the typical one can cost anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000,\u201d Dietz says. That\u2019s good for the supply of rental housing, which is also very tight. But Dietz says we also need a lot more homes for people to buy.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\nZoning challenges<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n