\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

By Amber Randall<\/div><\/div>\n

Housing markets continue to run hot, despite rising interest rates and home prices. Some researchers worry a fear of missing out may be fueling the current trend.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. \u2013 Rising interest rates and higher home prices would normally cool a hot housing market, yet the national and local real estate scenes continue to run red hot.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are concerned that a fear of missing out, colloquially known as FOMO, is creating a buying snowball effect that may lead to a housing bubble if left unchecked.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The current market, where higher prices and other factors are not resulting in a slowdown, is moving away from market fundamentals, they found, suggesting that buyer exuberance, in the form of fear of missing out, is driving the current trend.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe resulting fundamental-driven higher house prices may have fueled a fear-of-missing-out wave of exuberance involving new investors and more aggressive speculation among existing investors,\u201d said researchers.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cExpectations-driven explosive appreciation (often called exuberance) in real house prices has many consequences,\u201d they went onto write, \u201cincluding the misallocation of economic resources, distorted investment patterns, individual bankruptcies and broad macroeconomic effects on growth and employment.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The paper then described how \u201cthis self-fulfilling mechanism leads to price growth that may become exponential (or explosive),\u201d resulting in even greater misalignment, until policymakers intervene, investors become cautious, \u201cor even a bust occurs.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Locally, The market\u2019s momentum is evidenced in astronomical price growth \u2013 the median sale price of a home in the tri-county area is $450,000, a 20% increase from the previous year, according to data from Redfin.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Market fundamentals and the housing market<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n
The biggest area of concern for researchers is how the housing market is diverging from basic market fundamentals like mortgage rates, inventory and income.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Researchers used datasets from the International Housing Observatory to find out whether buyer exuberance is playing a role in steep housing prices. From there, they marked what time periods had significant levels of buyer exuberance. Researchers warned that the last time the housing market saw such exuberance was before the crash of 2008.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
When asked about the trend, Ken H. Johnson, real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University, said, \u201cI think there are other factors, but this fear of missing out is amongst the most notable. We saw this around 2005 in Miami where people were buying and there was really no financial reason to buy.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Consumer behavior and high prices<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n
When it comes to consumers and their purchase decisions, emotions, either positive or negative, play one of the most important roles, said Dr. Khaled Aboulnasr at Florida Golf Coast University. Emotions can also cloud consumers\u2019 perception when making decisions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u201cSometimes if you are unrealistically optimistic or if you have too much fear and anxiety, it may not let you weigh the true risk of the decision you are making,\u201d added Aboulnasr.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Potential buyers have had to watch prices rise and housing availability drop, all while the rental market grew brutal. It all leads to frustration.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u201cAt this point, they feel that it is more difficult, especially if you are applying for a mortgage, and they are at such a disadvantage to the cash buyer,\u201d he said. \u201cIt becomes a much stronger motivator of behavior.\u201d In other words, it\u2019s tempting to think that if you get a chance at a house, you take it.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Additional motivations include missing out on lower mortgage rates, which can make a home more unaffordable as they rise, as well as the fear of not being able to save up for a home as rents rise.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Many buyers have watched as homes they once passed on for being too expensive have become even more expensive, leading them to fear that they may miss out on more equity gains if they wait out the housing market, added Whitney Dutton with the Dutton Group in Fort Lauderdale.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u201cPeople are less worried about finding that perfect home than they are worried about lose[ing] out,\u201d said Dutton. \u201cThey are worried that if they don\u2019t pay this [amount] now is it going to be more over-priced next year.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
The volatile rental market also adds to buyer fear. \u201cThere are people who have been renting for a couple years, thinking they were going to rent in the short term until prices came down. Now they think that\u2019s not going to happen,\u201d Dutton added. And as their buying opportunities have withered, landlords have raised rents aggressively \u2013 rents have risen upwards of 30% since last year, whereas a fixed-rate mortgage would have been relatively stable.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Will this lead to another housing bubble?<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n
Though 2008 saw a bust, both nationally and locally, market forces are a bit different today. If any market correction should happen, Dallas researcher said, it won\u2019t be of the magnitude of the last crash, mainly because the forces behind today\u2019s market include low inventory, rather than excessive borrowing.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Florida Atlantic University researchers previously said that buying in the current boom could prove to be a risky decision, as homebuyers are potentially buying near the peak of the market, and it could take years before they see a return on their investment.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
And it\u2019s unlikely that a bust will happen in this current housing market for South Florida, though prices will eventually start to trend back to normal, said Ken H. Johnson, real estate economist with Florida Atlantic University.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u201cSome cities will fare differently,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you live in an inventory shortage and expected population growth,\u201d he said in describing South Florida, \u201cI don\u2019t think you will see a housing crash.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
Of their work indicating exuberance driving an imbalanced market, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas economist Enrique Martinez Garcia made a medical analogy.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u201cThe chances of providing a full remedy and minimize the impact on the patient are better when you are able to detect signs of the problem quickly and act earlier. Our base scenario would be, therefore, that greater awareness of the risk of unsustainable price growth can contribute to investors becoming more cautious about the prospects of continued price growth at the current rates.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u00a9 2022 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n
Go to Source<\/a>
\nAuthor: marlam<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
By Amber Randall Housing markets continue to run hot, despite rising interest rates and home prices. Some researchers worry a fear of missing out may be fueling the current trend. FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. \u2013 Rising interest rates and higher home prices would normally cool a hot housing market, yet the national and local real estate scenes continue to run red hot. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are concerned that a fear of missing out, colloquially known as FOMO, is creating a buying snowball effect that may lead to a housing bubble if left unchecked. The current market, where higher prices and other factors are not resulting in a slowdown, is moving away from market fundamentals, they found, suggesting that buyer exuberance, in the form of fear of missing out, is driving the current trend. \u201cThe resulting fundamental-driven higher house prices may have fueled a fear-of-missing-out wave of exuberance involving new investors and more aggressive speculation among existing investors,\u201d said researchers. \u201cExpectations-driven explosive appreciation (often called exuberance) in real house prices has many consequences,\u201d they went onto write, \u201cincluding the misallocation of economic resources, distorted investment patterns, individual bankruptcies and broad macroeconomic effects on growth and employment.\u201d The paper then described how \u201cthis self-fulfilling mechanism leads to price growth that may become exponential (or explosive),\u201d resulting in even greater misalignment, until policymakers intervene, investors become cautious, \u201cor even a bust occurs.\u201d Locally, The market\u2019s momentum is evidenced in astronomical price growth \u2013 the median sale price of a home in the tri-county area is $450,000, a 20% increase from the previous year, according to data from Redfin. Market fundamentals and the housing market The biggest area of concern for researchers is how the housing market is diverging from basic market fundamentals like mortgage rates, inventory and income. Researchers used datasets from the International Housing Observatory to find out whether buyer exuberance is playing a role in steep housing prices. From there, they marked what time periods had significant levels of buyer exuberance. Researchers warned that the last time the housing market saw such exuberance was before the crash of 2008. When asked about the trend, Ken H. Johnson, real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University, said, \u201cI think there are other factors, but this fear of missing out is amongst the most notable. We saw this around 2005 in Miami where people were buying and there was really no financial reason to buy.\u201d Consumer behavior and high prices When it comes to consumers and their purchase decisions, emotions, either positive or negative, play one of the most important roles, said Dr. Khaled Aboulnasr at Florida Golf Coast University. Emotions can also cloud consumers\u2019 perception when making decisions. \u201cSometimes if you are unrealistically optimistic or if you have too much fear and anxiety, it may not let you weigh the true risk of the decision you are making,\u201d added Aboulnasr. Potential buyers have had to watch prices rise and housing availability drop, all while the rental market grew brutal. It all leads to frustration. \u201cAt this point, they feel that it is more difficult, especially if you are applying for a mortgage, and they are at such a disadvantage to the cash buyer,\u201d he said. \u201cIt becomes a much stronger motivator of behavior.\u201d In other words, it\u2019s tempting to think that if you get a chance at a house, you take it. Additional motivations include missing out on lower mortgage rates, which can make a home more unaffordable as they rise, as well as the fear of not being able to save up for a home as rents rise. Many buyers have watched as homes they once passed on for being too expensive have become even more expensive, leading them to fear that they may miss out on more equity gains if they wait out the housing market, added Whitney Dutton with the Dutton Group in Fort Lauderdale. \u201cPeople are less worried about finding that perfect home than they are worried about lose[ing] out,\u201d said Dutton. \u201cThey are worried that if they don\u2019t pay this [amount] now is it going to be more over-priced next year.\u201d The volatile rental market also adds to buyer fear. \u201cThere are people who have been renting for a couple years, thinking they were going to rent in the short term until prices came down. Now they think that\u2019s not going to happen,\u201d Dutton added. And as their buying opportunities have withered, landlords have raised rents aggressively \u2013 rents have risen upwards of 30% since last year, whereas a fixed-rate mortgage would have been relatively stable. Will this lead to another housing bubble? Though 2008 saw a bust, both nationally and locally, market forces are a bit different today. If any market correction should happen, Dallas researcher said, it won\u2019t be of the magnitude of the last crash, mainly because the forces behind today\u2019s market include low inventory, rather than excessive borrowing. Florida Atlantic University researchers previously said that buying in the current boom could prove to be a risky decision, as homebuyers are potentially buying near the peak of the market, and it could take years before they see a return on their investment. And it\u2019s unlikely that a bust will happen in this current housing market for South Florida, though prices will eventually start to trend back to normal, said Ken H. Johnson, real estate economist with Florida Atlantic University. \u201cSome cities will fare differently,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you live in an inventory shortage and expected population growth,\u201d he said in describing South Florida, \u201cI don\u2019t think you will see a housing crash.\u201d Of their work indicating exuberance driving an imbalanced market, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas economist Enrique Martinez Garcia made a medical analogy. \u201cThe chances of providing a full remedy and minimize the impact on the patient are better when you are able to detect signs of the problem quickly and act earlier. Our base scenario would be, therefore, that greater awareness of the risk of unsustainable price growth can<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6479"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nwfl4sale.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}