![](\"https:\/\/www.floridarealtors.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/full_width_main_image\/public\/page\/image\/2020-02\/gettyimages-917475538.jpg?h=75193402&itok=k1gyc9vx\")
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Lawrence Yun and other economists spoke to Naples Realtors last week. Yun says mortgage rates could hit 8% later this year \u2013 but he expects around 6% by spring.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n NAPLES, Fla. \u2013 Homebuyers and Realtors\u00ae should brace for even higher mortgage rates in the next two months, Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors\u00ae (NAR) Dr. Lawrence Yun said Wednesday.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cI am a little concerned that mortgage rates may go up to 8%, but in the short term,\u201d Yun told attendees of Naples Area Board of Realtors\u2019 2023 Economic Summit in Naples. \u201cBy Thanksgiving time, I think it would have retreated to,\u201d the current rate of about 7%, he said. \u201cBy early spring, I see it going closer to 6%\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Yun gave three reasons for his predictions about the 30-year fixed rate:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n If only the spread between government and homeowner borrowing improves, that will help interest rates, Yun said. \u201cEven if we just get the spread back to normal, we get to 6%,\u201d Yun said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n High interest rates are doing a lot of damage, Yun said. Among those damages? Home sales and commercial real estate property prices are down. Community banks are struggling with interest rates and commercial real estate loan exposure. And there\u2019s an economic slowdown because of high interest rates.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Inflation is high and the price of key items, including rent, are up significantly from a year ago, which is also a problem for real estate sales, Yun said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n All three economists who spoke at the summit agreed that until more inventory is available in the right places, the market will continue to be tight, and prices will remain high.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201c2023 is difficult. This year is difficult. But wait until next year when I think things will really play out in a better way,\u201d Yun said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Yun\u2019s prediction is true of the entire U.S., he said. Florida, and Collier County in particular, are doing better than many areas, and better than many other years, said Dr. Brad O\u2019Connor, chief economist with Florida Realtors\u00ae<\/strong>, and local market analyst Cindy Carroll.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n There\u2019s a lot to be optimistic about here in Florida and especially here in Collier County,\u201d O\u2019Connor said. \u201cThe underlying demand for moving into Florida is still quite high.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n O\u2019Connor said he considers the desire to move to Florida from other states to be a permanent trend. And while inventory is down, \u201cit\u2019s like not the number of new listings has gone to zero. \u2026 You\u2019re getting about the same number of listings before 2020,\u201d unlike a lot of Florida, O\u2019Connor said.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n In addition, he said, \u201cWe have some of the healthiest homeowners in the country. No one is using subprime lending, and everybody has fixed rate loans.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Copyright \u00a9 2023, South Lake Press, all rights reserved.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n\n\n
Inventory still affecting the market<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n