December Rate Cut in Question

WASHINGTON — A top Federal Reserve official said Monday that he is leaning toward supporting an interest rate cut when the Fed meets in two weeks but that evidence of persistent inflation before then could cause him to change that view.

Speaking at George Washington University, Christopher Waller, a key member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said he was confident that inflation is headed lower and that the central bank will likely keep reducing its key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans.

But he noted that there’s a risk that inflation “may be getting stuck above” the Fed’s 2% target, which would support an argument for keeping the Fed’s rate unchanged this month.

“At present, I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting,” Waller said in his remarks to a conference held by the American Institute for Economic Research. “But that decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation.”

Waller’s caution reflects a notable shift in the economic and inflation outlook in the past month or so. Growth in consumer spending and the broader economy was robust in the July-September quarter. In addition, inflation picked up in October after having slowed for most of this year.

With inflation having steadily fallen from its peak in 2022, the Fed reduced its key rate by a half-point in September and by a quarter-point in November. And it signaled in September that it expected to announce another quarter-point cut later this month. Yet inflation has remained above the Fed’s target level, clouding the Fed’s next step.

In October, “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, accelerated a bit. It rose 2.8% compared with a year earlier, up from 2.7% in September.

Waller stressed that if future economic reports showed inflation or growth deviating from the Fed’s expected paths, he could favor keeping rates unchanged this month.

“If the data we receive between today and the next meeting surprise in a way that suggests our forecasts of slowing inflation and a moderating but still-solid economy are wrong, then I will be supportive of holding the policy rate constant,” he said.

Even so, Waller said the Fed’s benchmark rate is high enough to restrict economic growth and inflation and so a quarter-point rate cut wouldn’t involve much risk of reigniting inflation.

“Cutting again will only mean that we aren’t pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard,” he said.

In his speech, Waller acknowledged some frustration over the recent persistence of inflation.

“I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out, yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute,” he said. “But let me assure you that submission is inevitable — inflation isn’t getting out of the octagon.”

In recent remarks, other Fed officials have also suggested that they haven’t yet made a final decision on whether to support a rate cut this month.

Earlier Monday, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, said he was “keeping my options open” when asked whether he favored a rate cut in two weeks.

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