October: This Year’s Best Time to Buy

SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Key market metrics including listing prices, inventory levels, new listings, time on market, homebuyer demand and price reductions indicate the week of September 29 – October 5 may be the best time to buy in 2024, Realtor.com said.

The company, in its sixth annual Best Time to Buy Report, said during this week, buyers could save over $14,000 compared to summer’s peak price on the median-priced home and could see as much as 37% more inventory than at the start of the year.

This week historically has shown the best balance of market conditions that favor buyers, the company said. Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed.

“Unlike the past few years, we are seeing ample for-sale inventory which could soak up any late-season demand in many markets, making the fall a great time to buy even if falling mortgage rates amp up more demand than is typical,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com®. “This year, buyers who are looking for that optimum mix of ample options and the potential to save on list price are going to find some of the best market dynamics in years during the first week of October.”

Purchasing a home or making an offer on a home this week may offer:

• Savings of more than $14,000 relative to the summer’s peak price of $445,000
• Up to 37% more active listings than at the start of the year
• More time to decide as homes are expected to stay on the market for more than two weeks longer, on average, than during this year’s peak
• Less competition with demand expected to be 29.5% lower than peak buying periods

“If the Best Week feels like it is approaching too quickly, buyers may be happy to hear that the following two weeks are the second- and third-best weeks to buy,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst, Realtor.com®. “These weeks boast many of the same benefits as the best week, but are just slightly less favorable due to falling new listing activity.”

Since 2018, Realtor.com® has analyzed home prices, inventory, listing views, and time on market, indicators that tend to follow regular seasonal patterns, to determine the best time to buy. Here’s how these factors breakdown during this unique window:

• Reduced listing prices: Nationally, the best week could mean roughly 50,000 homes seeing price reductions, based on inventory estimates. This weekly price reduction rate would translate to a monthly price reduced share of more than 22%.
• Increased listings to choose from: 2024 has diverged somewhat compared to past years as sustained seller activity and tepid buyer demand have pushed inventory levels higher. If this trend continues, the first week in October may see active listings climb to their highest level since pre-pandemic.
• Less competition from other buyers: Home buyers shopping during the best week should expect less competition from other buyers. Historically, during the Best Week to Buy, demand is 29.5% lower than the peak, and 14.0% lower than the average week.
• A more manageable market pace: The best week historically slowed by 34.8% compared to the peak pace earlier in the year. With a peak market pace of just 44 days in June, based on seasonal trends and a cooling market, the Best Week is expected to add more than two weeks to the market peak.

Jones added, “Buyers trying to close this fall should prepare now, and a great way to start is by saving a search, like you can do on Realtor.com®, to stay up to date on homes in their price range without the work of having to refresh or recreate their search.”

Methodology notes:

Realtor.com analyzed six supply and demand metrics at a national and metropolitan level that follow seasonal patterns, using data for 2018-2023 period (2020 data was omitted due to anomalies caused by the pandemic). Those metrics analyzed include: 1) listing prices, 2) inventory levels, 3) new “fresh” listings, 4) time on market, 5) homebuyer demand (realtor.com views per property) and 6) price reductions. Interest rates, which do not follow seasonal patterns, were not included. To account for 2024 market conditions, estimates reflect typical seasonal patterns layered on top of the most recent 2024 weekly data.

Each week of the year was scored from 0 to 100 based on the number of active listings. A given week scored highly if it had more listings compared to other weeks of the year. The other metrics were scored in the same way, such that each week had six different scores for active listings, new listings, listing prices, days on market, price reductions, and views per property. (In the case of prices, lower prices score higher. Same with views per property).

Each week was then ranked by the average of those scores. The week with the highest composite score was considered the best time to buy. This week represents a balanced view of market conditions favorable for buyers.

Source: Realtor.com

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